When you have the league’s best rushing attack as the Chiefs do, it’s no secret they need to do damage on the ground if you hope to win on Sundays. But if Kansas City can best their 190 ypg average by 10 yards, they’re all but guaranteed a win.
The Raiders have lost nine straight games when permitting 200 rushing yards. Only Buffalo (4) has allowed more 200-yard games in 2010 than the Raiders, who permitted 249 rushing yards vs. Houston (10/3) and 205 at Tennessee (9/12).
The Raiders are 6-40 (.130) when permitting a 100-yard rusher and are 6-60 (.091) when allowing an opposing team to register 30 or more carries dating back to 2004. KC owns a 100-yard back in its last three contests. The Chiefs have won 49 consecutive games when registering 40+ carries dating back to ’81, a feat they’ve pulled off in two straight games. KC hasn’t had three straight 40-carry games since 11/12/78-12/3/78.
You don’t need to crack any codes to know what the Chiefs are looking to do on offense. But this week the Chiefs should run, run and then keep running for good measure. History is clear: hit the 200 yard mark and the Raiders won’t be able to keep up.
Not only does Kansas City own the best running game in the league, but the Raiders are one of the worst at stopping the run. Oakland also brings a top 5 passing defense, though they won’t be at full strength with Nnamdi Asomugha nursing an ankle sprain.
Even if Asomugha misses Sunday’s game, Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones should still plan on carrying the ball at least 20 times each. With the success Kansas City is having every time they hand the ball off, I would think it’s reasonable to think they could run the ball more than 50 times against Oakland.