The opening odds for Sunday’s matchup between the Chiefs and 49ers at Arrowhead had the home team as a 3 point underdog. As kickoff has approached, that number has come down to 2 points. The over/under opened at 36 points and most of the week has stayed within a point of that opening line.
The folks over at Sports-Odds.com has put together a list of betting trends for you to consider before putting your money down on either team.
- 49ers are 13-6-4 ATS in their last 23 games overall.
- 49ers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
- 49ers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite.
- Chiefs are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 home games.
- Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 5-1 in 49ers last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 games on grass.
- Over is 15-6-2 in Chiefs last 23 home games.
- Over is 7-3 in Chiefs last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record
When I made my Week 3 Picks, the Chiefs were three point underdogs and I took the Browns. Obviously if I thought the Niners would win giving three points, I’m still sticking with them with the spread coming down.
I don’t think that they are going to come into Arrowhead and blow the doors off the Chiefs, mostly because the defense and special teams will be good enough to make sure that doesn’t happen. But I do worry about the offense being able to hold the ball enough (not to mention score enough points) to give the defense a rest. If the Kansas City defense can’t get long breaks from the pounding of Frank Gore, eventually they will start to break down.