For the second week in a row, the Chiefs are home favorites, this time by 7.5 points over the Buffalo Bills with an over/under of 45.5. On the heels of the Bills solid showing against the Ravens, that number could come down slightly between now and kickoff. Before you run off to put money down on the game, Offshore Insiders have a few trends for you to consider.
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo’s last 9 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Buffalo’s last 8 games when playing Kansas City
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo’s last 5 games
- Buffalo is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Kansas City
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Kansas City’s last 9 games when playing at home against Buffalo
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Kansas City’s last 8 games when playing Buffalo
- Kansas City is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 7 games at home
As I said the other day, the Chiefs are the better team and should win. But we also saw that the Bills are capable of putting up quite the fight as has already been demonstrated with the line coming down slightly from 8.
If you can find anything close to 10 points between now and kickoff it would be tempting to go with the Bills. Chan Gailey, no matter what he says publicly, will have the extra motivation of wanting to stick it to the man that fired him on the even of last season.
Between the two teams, 9 of their last 12 games have gone over. Add in Buffalo’s worst in the league rush defense going up against the Chiefs top ranked running game and the Bills passing game coming off a near-400 yard performance taking on Kansas City’s 25th ranked pass defense should make the over an easy play.