Week 5 NFL Picks

This week the NFL gives us a very interesting group of games.

I’m tempted to say easy, but that’s where I was leaning last week and all I did was produce a 6-8 week.  To say I’m at a loss for words when it comes to picking ATS this year would be putting it mildly.  Last season’s 60% is starting to feel like a decade ago as I struggle to stay at .500.

So here we go with another attempt to turn this ship around.

Enjoy.

Last Week: 6-8
Season: 29-31-2

Jacksonville at Buffalo (+1.5) – Jaguars

Tampa Bay at Cincinnati (-7) – Bengals

Atlanta at Cleveland (+3) – Falcons

St. Louis at Detroit (-3) – Rams

Kansas City at Indianapolis (-7.5) – Chiefs

Green Bay at Washington (+3) – Packers

Chicago at Carolina (+3) – Bears

Denver at Baltimore (-6) – Ravens

NY Giants at Houston (-3) – Texans

New Orleans at Arizona (+7) – Saints

Tennessee at Dallas (-7) – Cowboys

San Diego at Oakland (+6.5) – Chargers

Philadelphia at San Francisco (-3.5) – Niners

Minnesota at NY Jets (-4) – Jets

Maybe I jinxed myself two weeks ago when I took San Francisco over Kansas City and that has stuck with me over the past two weeks.  You won’t find me making that mistake again, as I’m taking the Chiefs with the 7.5 points.  I don’t know that Todd Haley will be able to win this one, but I’ve seen enough to feel confident that the Chiefs will keep it close.  I thought the spread for this one should have been down near 6, so it’s hard to turn down 7.5 (I’ve seen as high as 9 on some sites) for the league’s last unbeaten.

Denver will try to go into Baltimore without any running backs and take down a Ravens team flying high after a win on the road over the Steelers.  Kyle Orton is the league’s leading passer (read that line again) but I have a hard time believing he’ll be able to sling it around against the Ravens and the best pass defense in the NFL.

The Vikings-Jets game could be one of the most intriguing of the season and it has nothing to do with either team’s Super Bowl aspirations.  Favre returning to New Jersey was a great start, but then you add in the addition of Randy Moss and top that with all of the fallout from the Favre/Deadspin story and this game is in a different atmosphere than the rest.  The only question is if the security at the New Meadowlands will allow signs mocking Favre’s, um… manhood.

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