Week 7 NFL Picks

It’s pretty amazing that I was able to only get 5 games right last week and not get completely destroyed.  That’s what happens when Vegas gets it right, forcing two pushes and plenty of others that were close (Hello, Chiefs-Texans).

Time week we have another group of games that present a great chance to put up 10 wins and get this ship turned back around.

As always, these are my best guesses at how this weekend’s games are going to play out.  And as always, reverse all of these picks in order to put some money in your pocket.

Last Week: 5-7-2
Season: 39-47-4

Cincinnati at Atlanta (-3.5) – Falcons

Washington at Chicago (-3) – Redskins

Philadelphia at Tennessee (-3) – Eagles

Jacksonville at Kansas City (-9) – Chiefs

Pittsburgh at Miami (+3) – Dolphins

Cleveland at New Orleans (-14) – Saints

St. Louis at Tampa Bay (-3) – Rams

San Francisco at Carolina (+3) – Niners

Buffalo at Baltimore (-14) – Ravens

Arizona at Seattle (-6) – Cardinals

Oakland at Denver (-8.5) – Raiders

New England at San Diego (-3) – Pats

Minnesota at Green Bay (-3) – Vikings

New York at Dallas (-3.5) – Cowboys

Once again I am inviting danger by taking 8 road teams.  A number like that would usually sway me to reevaluate a couple games, but when I went over each game I started leaning toward more road teams (Giants, Steelers) so the 8 stay unchanged.

Only 2 double digit lines this week (though Chiefs-Jaguars could join them any minute) and both offer reason for wavering.

The Saints only have one win of more than 10 points, but that was last week at Tampa.  Meanwhile, the Browns have only lost one game by more than 10, making that 14 point spread very dangerous.  The only reason I’m taking the Saints is because both teams are coming off those 10+ point games, setting the stage for a big win for the defending champs.

Buffalo is just a bad football team that has lost their five games by an average of nearly 15 points and they have to go on the road to try and find their first victory.  Just like the Saints, the Ravens are poised for a big game, but they have only won by 14 points once.  Their other five games have been decided by an average of less than 4 points.  Even with a team as bad as the Bills I’d usually take the points, but the really are that bad.

Unfortunately for the Chiefs chances this week, I am happy to lay the points and take Kansas City.  With the Jaguars likely starting quarterback not having thrown a pass since 2005, I would have taken the Chiefs all the way up to 14.5.  By the time kickoff rolls around there’s a chance the line gets that high, so keep an eye on it between now and Sunday.

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